SPATIO-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF MANGROVE ECOSYSTEMS IN MUNCAR DISTRICT: IMPLICATIONS FOR BLUE CARBON CONSERVATION AND CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES

Hadiwijaya L. SALIM , ROKHMATULOH , Burhanuddin ZEIN , Victor NIKIJULUW , Devi D. SURYONO , Anang D. PURWANTO , Yaya I. ULUMUDDIN , Bayu PRAYUDHA , Agustin RUSTAM , Early SEPTININGSIH , Joko PRIHANTONO , Mariska A. KUSUMANINGTYAS , Nasir SUDIRMAN , Restu N. A. ATI , Rita RACHMAWATI , Yusmiana P. RAHAYU , August DAULAT , Hanggar PRASETIO , Viga A. WICAKSONO , Adi WIBOWO

DOI: 10.21163/GT_2027.221.15

ABSTRACT: Mangrove ecosystems in coastal Indonesia, especially in Banyuwangi Regency, are facing pressure due to human activities and environmental changes. This study aimed to assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of mangroves and project changes in area and its implications for blue carbon stocks in Muncar District, Banyuwangi, from 2015 to 2030. A combination of Sentinel-2 data, multispectral Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology, and Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) modelling was used to map historical changes and project future conditions. Classification using the Baloloy algorithm showed a high level of accuracy (Overall Accuracy 98%, Kappa 0.96), with mangrove area increasing from 262.55 ha in 2015 to 309.90 ha in 2025. However, the CA–Markov scenario projection indicates a decrease in mangrove area to 275.38 ha by 2030, based on the transition dynamics derived from the 2015–2020 calibration period. The blue carbon stock estimation using a mean carbon storage value of 714 Mg C/ha (equivalent to 2,620 Mg CO₂-eq/ha), the projected 10.98-ha reduction relative to the simulated 2025 baseline corresponds to a potential reduction in mangrove carbon stock of approximately 7,840 Mg C (28,746 Mg CO₂-eq). This value represents potential carbon stock at risk associated with the projected reduction in mangrove areas rather than a direct estimate of atmospheric carbon emissions. Despite historical mangrove recovery, the results indicate continued vulnerability to future mangrove loss and associated reductions in landscape-scale carbon storage. Spatially targeted conservation, rehabilitation, and regular monitoring are therefore recommended to maintain mangrove extent and blue-carbon stocks and to support climate-change mitigation and coastal ecosystem resilience.

Keywords: Mangrove; Blue Carbon; CA-Markov; Sentinel-2; Banyuwangi.

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