Geographia Technica, Vol 21, Issue 2, 2026, pp. 150-166
GEOSTATISTICAL VARIABLES INFLUENCING LIVESTOCK GUARDIAN DOGS (LGDs) MOVEMENT IN MOUNTAIN SETTINGS. A PREDICTIVE MAPPING CASE STUDY FROM NORTHERN ROMANIA
Silviu Vasile BUMBAK 
ABSTRACT: In Romania, a Carpathian nation by definition, pastoralism represents a cultural reference and, as such, its proxies are seen as ancestral users of mountain spaces. The cultural reference extends to the livestock guardian dogs (LGDs) present at the sheepfolds across the landscape. The dogs are seen as an integral part of pastoralism, providing security in an environment populated with large carnivores. However, through mountain tourism, a new category of landscape users is increasingly making its presence known, as many outdoor recreational activities in the mountains overlap with the pastoral calendar. This situation creates a potential for conflict between two distinct categories of landscape users. The research hypothesis states that the flock and the dog’s presence are not randomly distributed but follow a spatial pattern characterized by key geostatistical variables, with varying degrees of significance and predictive power. To demonstrate this in a GIS environment (QGIS), 9 geostatistical variables (topographic, environmental and control variables) were selected as representative for a 113 km2 area used by two LGDs from two sheepfolds in the lowlands of Igniș Mountains, Maramureș Land, northern Carpathians. All geovariables were reclassified as categorical data using a 1-5 rules-based risk scale. The reclassified geovariables were used to build a weighted theoretical model mapping the areas where the probability of their presence is high. Using telemetry data collected during a 60-day monitoring campaign of the two LGDs for validation (over 1200 daytime observation points), the analysis shows that over 78% of the daytime LGD activity was concentrated in areas with medium to high (over 3.5) probability risk. These results indicate that topographic variables can influence LGD presence and serve as predictors of occurrence. The environmental variables can highlight areas of high occurrence, while the high density of observations near the control variables shows how they act as anchors, concentrating the dogs' movement in their vicinity. Case studies of this kind have the potential to contribute to the design process of smart solutions for trail management instruments based on predictive mapping, integration of results into dedicated trail apps, spatial planning and design trails, information, and signaling infrastructure.
Keywords: Livestock guardian dogs (LGD); Telemetry data; Mountain tourism; Geostatistical variables; Potential for conflict; Predictive mapping; Trail management.
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